Nutshell Sports and The Girl
Copyright 1996-2019
 

I used to track the lines and rate the teams according to how the line changed from week to week. And I noticed something interesting. Just because a good team lost wasn't necessarily a reason for them to change a team's rating. That got my gears turning. A few years later I designed this system using that theory. It is based on head to head competition. There is no exaggerated margin of victory factor and there is no schedule strength. They are natural in this system.

This system is not designed for gambling. It is merely the report card for how teams have fared up to their previous games. It also does not consider weather, injuries, etc., that affect the outcomes. It merely provides a base upon which to integrate those factors. If you do happen to gamble on football, here is my advice:

  1. Begin only with money you don't need for other things.

  2. Never bet more than half of that money on any given day.

  3. Never bet more than ten percent on any game no matter how sure you are about the outcome.

  4. If your money runs out, stop gambling.

I do not gamble. I only follow the teams and allow my calculations to see how well teams have played. Only the final rating of a team is meaningful and the only way to judge a team's real strength is to play more games.

NCAA Football
10 January 2019
rank team med
1 Clemson 116.00
2 Texas A&M 100.50
3 Ohio State 98.50
4 Alabama 98.50
5 Florida 96.50
6 Auburn 96.50
7 Oklahoma 96.00
8 Texas 91.00
9 Georgia 90.50
10 C. Florida 90.00
11 Iowa 89.50
12 LSU 89.50
13 Penn State 88.50
14 Notre Dame 88.00
15 Minnesota 87.50
16 Baylor 87.50
17 West Virginia 87.00
18 Ohio 86.00
19 Kansas State 86.00
20 Army 85.50
21 Washington State 85.50
22 Washington 85.50
23 Wake Forest 85.00
24 Missouri 84.50
25 Iowa State 84.50
26 Northwestern 84.00
27 Syracuse 83.50
28 Mississippi State 83.50
29 Kentucky 82.50
30 Stanford 82.50
31 TCU 82.00
32 Nebraska 80.00
33 Oregon 80.00
34 Indiana 80.00
35 Virginia 80.00
36 Oklahoma State 80.00
37 Cincinnati 79.50
38 Utah 79.50
39 Boise State 78.50
40 Michigan State 78.50
41 Memphis 78.00
42 Pittsburgh 78.00
43 Wisconsin 78.00
44 Duke 78.00
45 App State 77.50
46 Fresno State 77.00
47 Vanderbilt 76.50
48 Tennessee 76.00
49 Miami 76.00
50 Utah State 75.50
51 NC State 75.50
52 Maryland 75.50
53 UCLA 74.00
54 Kansas 74.00
55 Florida State 73.00
56 Arkansas 72.50
57 California 72.50
58 USC 72.50
59 Michigan 72.50
60 Arizona State 72.00
61 Texas Tech 72.00
62 BYU 71.50
63 Boston College 71.50
64 Miami OH 71.00
65 Mississippi 71.00
66 Marshall 70.50
67 Georgia Tech 70.50
68 Temple 70.50
69 Virginia Tech 70.00
70 Middle Tenn 69.50
71 South Carolina 69.50
72 Troy State 69.00
73 Purdue 69.00
74 North Carolina 68.50
75 Tulane 68.50
76 Ga Southern 68.50
77 UAB 67.00
78 Buffalo 67.00
79 Wyoming 66.00
80 Arizona 66.00
81 Navy 64.50
82 Colorado 64.50
83 Toledo 64.00
84 W. Michigan 63.50
85 Arkansas State 63.50
86 Tulsa 63.00
87 E. Michigan 63.00
88 Florida Int'l 62.50
89 Rutgers 62.00
90 Northern Illinois 62.00
91 SMU 61.50
92 Southern Miss 61.00
93 Air Force 61.00
94 La-Monroe 60.50
95 Hawaii 60.50
96 La-Lafayette 60.00
97 South Florida 60.00
98 Bowling Green 59.00
99 W. Kentucky 58.50
100 Illinois 58.00
101 Louisville 58.00
102 North Texas 57.50
103 UNLV 56.50
104 Nevada 56.50
105 San Diego State 56.00
106 Oregon State 55.50
107 Charlotte 55.00
108 South Alabama 54.00
109 Colorado State 54.00
110 Texas State 53.50
111 Ball State 52.50
112 East Carolina 52.00
113 Houston 52.00
114 San Jose State 51.50
115 New Mexico 51.50
116 Coastal Carolina 51.50
117 Louisiana Tech 51.50
118 Florida Atlantic 51.50
119 NM State 50.50
120 Akron 50.00
121 Old Dominion 49.00
122 Massachusetts 49.00
123 Texas-SA 49.00
124 Liberty 48.50
125 Rice 47.50
126 Georgia State 47.00
127 Connecticut 44.50
128 C. Michigan 44.50
129 Kent State 42.50
130 UTEP 36.00